Will Ben Shelton win the Tabilo vs Shelton…46%−42Will Alejandro Tabilo win the Tabilo vs Sh…54%+41Will Alex Michelsen win the Fritz vs Miche…62%+27St Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays: ST…43%−15Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Winn…35%+10Bitcoin price on Aug 1, 2026?77%−7Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotif…92%−5Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?90%−2Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening W…81%+2Will the high temp in LA be >85° on Aug 1,…2%−2Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August…22%+2Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?15%+2

MarketZone

Prediction markets, on air & online

25 markets · 6:34 AM ET

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Lead market● KalshisportsJust moved

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati: Market Prices Steelers at 35% to Win

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Winner?

Yes — implied

35%

1 hour+10 pts

What changed

Over the past hour, Pittsburgh's implied probability climbed 10 percentage points — a notable short-term shift. No significant movement was recorded over the prior 24-hour window, suggesting the recent move is a fresh development.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be official injury designations, pregame roster announcements, or any team news closer to kickoff. Traders appear to be watching for confirmation of whatever sparked the recent 10-point move.

Volume

$6.3M

Closes in

2d 11h

View market on Kalshi

Economy

5 markets

economyPolymarket

Bitcoin $62K Dip Watch: Market Prices 24% Chance This Week

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?

22%

+2 pts

What changed

The YES probability has moved 4 percentage points higher over the past hour, while the 24-hour window shows no net change. The short-term uptick suggests fresh activity, though the broader daily picture remains flat.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve commentary, or notable Bitcoin spot and futures volume shifts. Traders appear to be watching the $62K level as a key short-term technical threshold.

1d 17h$123KView on Polymarket

economyPolymarket

Bitcoin Direction Market: August 1 — 90% Pricing 'Up'

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?

90%

−2 pts

What changed

The 'Up' probability has drifted 2 points lower over the past hour, while the 24-hour reading shows no net change. The market appears to be in a modest consolidation phase near elevated probability levels.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be intraday Bitcoin price action in the hours approaching July 31 noon ET, any macro data releases, significant exchange volume shifts on Binance, or broad risk-asset moves that could reframe short-term crypto direction.

5h 25m$143KView on Polymarket

economyPolymarket

Bitcoin $64K Target: Market Pricing Near-Zero Odds by August 1

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?

−1 pts

What changed

The market has moved 39 percentage points lower over the past 24 hours. Recent movement over the last hour appears flat. Bitcoin is currently trading near $62,975, according to CoinGecko data.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be Bitcoin's spot price action on major exchanges, macro economic data releases, and any significant crypto-specific news heading into the August 1 resolution window.

5h 25m$186KView on Polymarket

80%Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?Kalshi152d 13h$890K−1

Culture

5 markets

cultureKalshi

Ariana Grande Sitting at 97% to Hit #1 on Spotify USA at Some Point in July 2026

Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026?

92%

−5 pts

What changed

The market moved 2 points lower in the past hour but is still 4 points higher over the last 24 hours, suggesting some mild short-term fluctuation against a broader upward trend in confidence.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be any new music announcement, album rollout, or viral moment from Grande heading into summer 2026. Sustained chart competition from other major artists could also shift sentiment.

3h 25m$401KView on Kalshi

cultureKalshi

The Odyssey at Even Odds for Best Picture

Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars?

50%

−1 pts

What changed

Over the past hour, the market has drifted one point lower, suggesting very mild softening in sentiment. The 24-hour window shows no net movement, indicating the market has been broadly stable heading into this window.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be major critics' circle announcements, guild nominations, or box office and streaming performance data — all traditional leading indicators traders appear to be watching in Best Picture forecasting.

517d 04h$896KView on Kalshi

81%Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?Polymarket1d 13h$190K+2 22%Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score?Kalshi2d 03h$886K 98%Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Aug 1, 2026?Kalshi3h 25m$43K

Politics

5 markets

politicsKalshi

Texas Senate Race: Paxton Market Sits at 55% GOP Advantage

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?

54%

+1 pts

What changed

Over the past 24 hours, the YES probability moved approximately 2 points higher, suggesting a modest shift in trader sentiment toward the Republican side. The last hour has been flat, indicating the market may be stabilizing around current levels.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be an official Paxton campaign announcement, primary challenger entries, polling data, or legal developments related to Paxton. Party fundraising disclosures and candidate filing deadlines could also shift market sentiment.

459d 04h$3.9MView on Kalshi

politicsKalshi

Vance 2028 GOP Nomination Market Sits Near 40%

Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

40%

+1 pts

What changed

Price movement has been minimal — flat over the past hour and down just one percentage point over 24 hours. The market appears to be in a holding pattern with no major near-term catalyst driving sharp movement.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be formal declarations of 2028 candidacy — from Vance or potential rivals — as well as shifts in presidential approval ratings, party convention discussions, or major political events affecting the GOP field.

829d 04h$3.8MView on Kalshi

politicsKalshi

Todd Blanche at 64% to Become Trump's Next Attorney General

Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?

64%

flat

What changed

Over the past 24 hours, the market has drifted 3 points lower, suggesting a modest softening in confidence. The past hour shows flat movement, indicating the market has paused its recent slide for now.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be an official transition announcement, confirmation hearing scheduling, or credible reporting on alternative candidates. Any formal nomination statement would likely produce rapid market movement.

903d 04h$3.1MView on Kalshi

62%Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Kalshi375d 03h$1.4M−1 38%Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?Kalshi459d 04h$1.9M

Other

3 markets

otherKalshi

Hormuz Transit Traffic Market Drifts Lower — 38% Chance Above 60 Before 2027

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?

38%

flat

What changed

The market has moved 1 point lower in the past hour and 2 points lower over the past 24 hours, reflecting a modest but consistent drift toward NO in recent trading sessions.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be shifts in regional geopolitical conditions, updated IMF PortWatch traffic readings, changes in global oil demand routing, or any diplomatic developments affecting Gulf shipping lanes.

153d 04h$1.6MView on Kalshi

otherPolymarket

Musk Tweet Count Market: Will He Hit the 90–114 Range?

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?

20%

−1 pts

What changed

The YES probability has risen approximately 7 percentage points over the past 24 hours, while the past hour has seen flat movement. Volume has crossed $117,000, suggesting meaningful participant activity around this market.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be any major news cycle, product announcement, or political development approaching that late-July window, as high-profile events have historically correlated with elevated posting volume from the account.

5h 25m$118KView on Polymarket

15%Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?Kalshi152d 04h$1.5M+2

Weather

1 markets

weatherKalshi

Will the high temp in LA be >85° on Aug 1, 2026?

−2 pts

Market action

Repriced 2 points lower in the last hour on $44K traded.

21h 24m$44KView on Kalshi

World

1 markets

worldKalshi

GameStop–eBay Acquisition Market Edges Up Slightly

Will GameStop announce acquisition of eBay before Jan 1, 2027?

14%

+1 pts

What changed

The YES probability moved one point higher in the last hour, while the 24-hour view remains flat. The modest short-term tick suggests a small uptick in recent activity without a sustained directional shift.

What to watch

The next catalyst may be any official GameStop investor communications, earnings calls, or SEC filings signaling strategic acquisitions. eBay's own corporate announcements could also move this market.

152d 18h$2.5MView on Kalshi

Lead market · 35% yesPittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Winner?View on Kalshi